How to read the simulator
Most traders judge a strategy by its expected value: a 60% win rate with 1.5R winners looks profitable on paper. Expected value says nothing about the order of trades. Two traders with the same edge can see very different equity curves, and the difference comes down to streaks.
The interleaved mode spreads wins and losses out, so streaks stay short. The clustered mode groups them, which is closer to how markets often behave when a regime persists. Compare the two at the same win rate to see how much sequencing alone changes the path.
The blue line is equity in R, where 1R is one unit of risk per trade. The pink bars show position size. Martingale scaling makes them spike after losses. The red dashed line is the blowout floor, and the green dashed line is the profit target.
Why sizing up after losses is dangerous
Increasing size after a loss to recover quickly makes each losing streak more expensive. With a few losses in a row, the next trade can be several times base risk, so an ordinary streak can end the account. Run the same win rate with martingale on and off, in clustered mode, and compare the red paths in the Monte Carlo chart.
Fixed versus trailing drawdown
A fixed floor stays a set distance below starting equity. A trailing floor follows your high-water mark, so every new peak raises the floor. Trailing rules leave less room after a good run, and many aggressive sessions breach them during normal variance.
Using the Monte Carlo result
One session shows one path. The 100-session overlay shows the distribution: what share of sessions survive, what share are ruined, and what the average net return looks like. Use it to test whether your sizing rules and drawdown limit fit the variance your strategy produces.